Phil Winslow, Dennis Simson, and Bryan McGrath conducted a survey of 50 CIOs from Fortune 1000 companies about their desktop computer users. The researchers asked that for a given desktop technology, what percentage of the CIO's users are using it now? How about in 2 years? How about in 5 years?Basically they asked 50 CIOs from Fortune 1000 companies a series of questions. For a given technology, what percentage of your users are using it now? How about in 2 years? How about in 5 years?
They asked these questions for each of the following five technologies:
- Blade PCs
- Virtual disk PCs
- Virtual desktops
- Server-based computing
- Traditional desktops
What was interesting was that Blade PCs and virtual disk PCs are being used by almost no one: today, in 2 years, and in 5 years. Most companies are using SBC for 5-10% of users now, with that evolving to 10-50% in the next 5 years.
Traditional PCs are of course the majority today, generally with 80%+ in companies. But that will drop to 50-80% in the next 5 years.
The biggest surprise was virtual desktops. While they're only used for 3% or so of users today, that looks like it will grow to 5-10% in 2 years, with a majority of CIOs saying this will be in the 10-50% range in 5 years.
These figures are based on my own personal interpretation of some very crazy charts in the Credit Suisse report.
Credit Suisse extrapolated this data to mean that the desktop virtualization market will be $1.8B in five years!